There is more than a 99.17% chance that London Marathon runners will complete the race this year, new data has discovered.

The highly-anticipated, annual race is set to take place on Sunday 2nd October this year. Many participants may start to feel the pressure as the 26.6-mile run draws near, particularly those running for the first time.

But runners should have no fear! Odds experts at CasinoAlpha analysed historical data from the London Marathon, from as early as 1981, to discover the likelihood of crossing the finish line this year – and the findings are incredibly optimistic.

What are the chances that participants will complete the London Marathon in 2022?

Based on historical data, it is predicted that participants have more than a 99.17% chance of completing the London Marathon in 2022.

Since the London Marathon started, there has been a steady increase each year in the proportion of runner’s finishing the race. The average completion race over each decade that the marathon has been going for are:

1980’s: 92.30% completion

1990’s: 96.95% completion

2000’s: 98.38% completion

2010’s: 98.96% completion

Based on the upward trend in completion over time, experts at CasinoAlpha forecast that the upwards trend will continue this year.

2021 and 2020 were excluded from calculations due to the pandemic, and 2019’s completion rate was 99.17%; so it is expected that this will be even higher in 2022.

There was a stark increase between the 80’s and 90’s, and 90’s and 00’s, potentially correlating with societal attitudes towards health and fitness.

How does the weather impact performance in the London Marathon?

Experts at CasinoAlpha also analysed the weather, to see how different conditions impacted completion rates.

Weather data was analysed from 2001 onwards (when this data was recorded).

It was found that when the temperature was over 20 degrees Celsius, there was a notable drop in the completion rate, with conditions clearly too hot for runners.

In comparison, when temperatures dropped to under 15 degrees Celsius, participants performed slightly better. The best year for completion rates was when the temperature was 10 degrees Celsius.

Interestingly, the rain doesn’t seem to have an impact on completion rates. Amazingly, it’s only rained three times on the day of the London Marathon since 2000!

Commenting on the findings, CasinoAlpha’s CEO, Tudor Turiceanu, said:

“We wanted to analyse the historical London Marathon data to predict how runner’s may fare in this year’s race. With the past two years being impacted by the pandemic, and some of the race being done virtually, we imagine those limbering up for the run may be starting to feel nervous having not competed properly in a few years – or potentially never before!”

“We hope that the findings serve as a great comfort to participants in the 2022 London Marathon, as the odds that they will complete the race are over 99%! We wish all of the best to those taking part, and hope these findings can give them a confidence boost before the run.”

CasinoAlpha have released the data to uncover the odds of participants completing the London Marathon this year.