New research from London Met shows that almost all North Londoners were unable to comply with social distancing rules, and nearly half deliberately broke rules, during the strictest period of lockdown.

On 23 March 2020, Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the British people to stay home, bar certain essential activities and or daily exercise. This unprecedented request, designed to limit the spread of COVID-19 and ease pressure on the NHS as the crisis unfolded, remained in place until the government made its first steps in easing lockdown in mid-May.

681 residents of Islington, Haringey, Camden, Hackney, Barnet and Enfield were asked whether they had come within two meters of someone from outside their household during essential or permitted trips; left the house for non-essential reasons; or met up with others from outside their household during this period.

The results showed that the vast majority (92.8%) were unable to maintain social distancing rules, while just under half (48.6%) deliberately broke the rules. Over a two-week period, North Londoners, on average, failed to maintain social distancing 10.77 times and deliberately broke social distancing rules 2.59 times. The number of North Londoners deliberately breaking lockdown rules increased by 63% between 13 May and 1 June 2020, when lockdown measures were further eased. This period also included news coverage of Dominic Cummings driving to Durham with coronavirus symptoms.

These findings are contrary to declarations from the government that ‘the overwhelming majority of the British public have complied with the regulations and guidance’ (Cabinet Office, August 2020), and the scientific community: ‘the impressively sustained high levels of adherence to lockdown the public has achieved’ (Independent Sage, May 2020).

Those who voted for the Conservative Government were 117% more likely to deliberately break social distancing rules than those who voted for other parties or did not vote. PhD holders (64%) and those whose highest qualification was GCSES (63%) had the highest rates of deliberately breaking social distancing rules compared to other categories of highest qualification achieved. Those that deliberately broke social distancing rules had a greater (+14%) sense of self-interest than those who did not deliberately break social distancing rules. Those living in a rented room of multiple occupancy had the highest rate of deliberate breaking of social distancing rules (62.2%) and the lowest rate of maintaining social distancing (2.4%) compared to other categories of living situation.

Those that did break social distancing rules were, on average, ten years younger than those who did not. Retired (23%) and long-term sick or disabled (18%) North Londoners had the highest rate of maintaining social distancing compared to other categories of employment status. Non-vulnerable North Londoners were 350% more likely to break social distancing rules than vulnerable North Londoners and those that did break social distancing rules were, on average, ten years younger than those who did not.

Dr Stephen Hills, Director of the Health Economics Research Group at London Met said, “What this study has shown is just how challenging it has been for people to maintain a distance of two metres from those they don’t live with when going out for permitted reasons. Those that were able to do so have tended to be vulnerable and older individuals and who reported greater control over others’ distancing. It is likely that they were able to adhere to social distancing rules because they were not going out for shopping or medication. Removing the need to go out for other groups would limit the spread of COVID-19 if a second spike was to occur.”

Dr Yolanda Eraso, Director of the Centre for Primary Health and Social Care at London Met continued, “Nearly half of the individuals in our sample deliberately broke the rules by meeting with others from outside their households or going out for unpermitted reasons. Such behaviours seem to indicate that acting for the common or the social good have dwindled in favour of a greater sense of self-interest. Clearer public health messages, maintaining a consistent sense of collective responsibility, and deterrence policies as seen in policing practices in France and Italy, could play a more relevant role in improving adherence to guidance.”

The study is currently in its second phase (qualitative interviews) and it is exploring people’s experiences and attitudes during the lockdown measures and, it is hoped, would help us better explain these behaviours.

The report Limiting the Spread of COVID-19 in North London Communities. Factors associated with non-adherence to social distancing rules is attached.