While ongoing polls and the latest talking points add drama and sway opinion during elections in the United States, the bookmakers are always tasked with looking beyond the contemporary and towards the outright conclusion. This is why so many people turn to the expertly devised odds of the bookies when looking to events that seemingly swing to and fro with each new interview.

In the case of the 2020 US election campaign, it’s a case of the reigning president, Donald Trump, looking to fend off would-be usurper Joe Biden. Despite the view of Trump in the UK, and across much of the rest of the world, the president is expected to be reinstated for his second term, according to the bookies.

So, why is this the case, and what could it mean for the UK should Biden not be able to defy the odds?

Trump has positioned himself well publically

A lot of oddsmaking comes down to historical trends and set statistics to determine probability. In the United States, it’s rare for a president who runs for their second term to lose. In fact, as detailed in THIS article, only ten of the 45 haven’t been re-elected, with one (John F Kennedy) being assassinated. The primary indicator has been the state of the economy at the time of voting.

LIBERATE MICHIGAN!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 17, 2020

When many state economies were closed down, with good and logical reason, these ‘liberate’ tweets won him a lot of favour among those who prioritise their jobs over all else. So, even if the US economy isn’t where people want it to be, many will point to these and other examples and see them as the president doing as much as he could to give people their jobs.

Trump plays the US political game very well. He has the stage of social media and the reach of national news whenever he has a press conference. This, along with his ability to get away with falsehoods and promote the economy however he sees fit, puts Trump ahead of Biden when you bet on politics HERE. However, should the economy tumble in the wake of the rash reopening and focus on economic growth, Biden’s longer odds should quickly shrink if he really drills home the collapse.

What would another Trump term mean for the UK

Generally speaking, Donald Trump is an unpopular figure in the UK, and many don’t like the chumminess that prime minister Boris Johnson has with the American president. As it stands, though, Johnson looks to be distancing himself from Trump, or, at the very least, trying to pry Trump’s obsession with politically-tied bartering away from trade deals.

It’s gone as far as the prime minister effectively snubbing the president in favour of allowing Chinese goliath Huawei to weigh-in on the UK’s 5G infrastructure, which was achieved by keeping politics and economics separate, as REPORTED here.

The UK will, naturally, seek to establish strong deals with both China and the US, especially in the wake of Brexit. However, Trump doesn’t like this, and the United States continues to attempt to impose a ‘Them or Us’ decision on Britain.

If Trump wins office for a second spell, negotiating with both nations will be increasingly difficult – particularly as he aims to ramp up his stance against the Chinese. If Biden wins, depending on how hard he pushes the anti-China agenda that voters seem to be responding to, the UK may find more freedom in trading with both economic giants.