London’s iconic landmarks at risk from climate change by 2050, according to new report

Some of the UK’s most well-known landmarks could be at risk from the impacts of extreme weather in future unless action is taken, according to a new report by leading insurer, Aviva.1

Aviva’s third Building Future Communities Report brings together the latest data to outline the risks that homes could face from multiple climate threats by 2050 and beyond, including flooding, subsidence and extreme heat, with London properties most at risk from these combined threats. The report also highlights the importance of preventative measures to help protect homes, businesses and communities across the UK.

According to the report, some of the UK’s most well-known landmarks, including London landmarks Hampton Court Palace and Red House in Bexleyheath, could be vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Cities such as London are particularly at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and heavy rainfall, exacerbated by pavements, roads, and buildings that prevent excess water from soaking into the ground, and could overwhelm the city’s drainage system.

Hampton Court Palace, situated on the banks of the River Thames, is on the frontline of growing climate pressures. Home Park is a natural floodplain but may face more frequent and severe flooding as rainfall intensifies. Combined with hotter and drier summers, likely to be felt acutely in London, climate change may put significant strain on the gardens and wider estate.

Excess water will not be the only climate threat
While river, coastal and surface water flooding could become an increasing threat, the UK may also face greater risks associated with hotter temperatures. In some areas, projections suggest a potential rise in maximum annual temperatures of up to 3.5°C.1 Periods of heat and drought, in combination with more intense rainfall, lead to movement in the ground which can cause subsidence in areas where clay soil is prevalent.

The clay-rich soil in London and the South-East of England makes the region vulnerable to subsidence, and this risk is projected to increase; by 2050, an additional 1.4 million properties across the UK could be at risk of subsidence.1
The early impact of this is already clear at The Red House in Bexleyheath.

The beautiful arts and crafts house was the former home of artist and social reformer William Morris, and is now under the stewardship of the National Trust. However, over the years, changes to the ground, catalysed by the changing weather, have had an impact on the building’s stability. As the foundations have started to move, internal and external cracks have appeared in the property, damaging the façade and the internal murals.

This picture is concerning, but also highly common across London, with its vulnerable soil and historic buildings. Much of the London population lives in homes that are more than 100 years old, and many homeowners will be familiar with the challenges faced by Red House.

Jason Storah, CEO UK & Ireland General Insurance, Aviva, said: “In the UK we have seen the impacts of our changing climate and this year is no exception. Record temperatures, wildfires and flash flooding have affected lives across the globe and it is clear that action is needed to adapt to the increasing frequency of these events.

“Our Building Future Communities Report lays bare the risks that homes and businesses could experience by 2050. The findings are stark. Millions more properties could be at risk from flooding, with rising temperatures, increased urbanisation and inadequate drainage exacerbating the risks in future.

“Well-known landmarks will not be immune to the threats. A changing climate is already impacting us and, in future, it is likely we will need to learn to live with extreme weather. Adapting our properties and infrastructure is key.

“To make the UK climate-ready, we are calling for urgent, collective action to be taken to ensure we can mitigate the risks we will all face.”

The team at Hampton Court Palace are already taking action to adjust to some of these changes. Garden teams are introducing more drought-resistant plants and perennial planting schemes to keep the grounds thriving in hotter, drier summers and during periods of heavy rainfall.

At Red House, the team have installed a ‘land drain’ to deal with surface water, allowing excess to seep through a layer of gravel before being collected and drained away from the property, reducing the risk of saturated soil causing instability. Trees are also carefully managed to avoid any further damage to the property.

Both are examples of how adaptation and preparing for climate change can help to mitigate the impact.

Storah added: “Despite the findings in our report, it is not too late to act. There is excellent work already underway across the UK, with owners, guardians, communities, and councils working together to protect some of our most iconic places.

“There are solutions – big and small – which could help to improve the UK’s climate-readiness if we take collaborative and urgent action. Continued investment in flood defences, preventing unprotected new homes in flood zones, encouraging low-cost property resilience measures, and attracting more investment in nature-based solutions will help to mitigate the damage inflicted by a changing climate in future.

“By taking vital steps now, we can help safeguard millions of properties and protect important landmarks from climate impacts in the decades to come.”

The report highlights some of the projects that Aviva is involved with to help improve resilience. Across the UK, the insurer has pledged more than £80 million towards nature-based solutions projects which capture carbon, contribute towards flood resilience, and help to restore natural habitats. It was also one of the first insurers to take part in Flood Re’s Build Back Better scheme and has supported over 400 customers to improve resilience in their homes.

Tips for making your home climate-ready
As well as collective action from governments, industry and investors, residents can also take some steps to help make their homes more climate-resilient, including:

If your property is in a high flood risk zone, consider:
Raising electrical sockets in higher-risk areas of the building.
Fitting non-return valves on toilets.
Installing flood gates and self-closing airbricks to avoid water getting in.
Ensure your garden has suitable drainage to help absorb surface water and choose more permeable materials for hard surfaces, such as gravel or block paving. Avoid using fake grass, which can make it more difficult for water to be absorbed.
If your property is in a high subsidence risk zone, check that:
Trees and large shrubs are planted at a safe distance from the property, are pruned regularly, and ideally planted with lower water demand species.
There is no water pooling near your home’s foundations and keep drains clear and operational.
If you are considering renovations or extensions, consider a structural survey to evaluate soil types and groundwater conditions and design your works accordingly.
If your property overheats during hot weather:
Install internal and external sources of shade that keep the heat out without the need for electric-powered cooling. These include blackout blinds, external window shades, use of planting and installation of solar-reflective films, many of which are suitable for both homeowners and renters.