With days until London goes to the polls, More in Common’s first ever London MRP finds Labour holding their lead in the capital, but with a series of traditional strongholds under siege from Zack Polanski’s Green Party. Reform, meanwhile, are set to make gains at the Conservative’s expense in outer London.

Top lines
Labour leads with the highest vote share in 21 of 32 boroughs, but loses ground on all sides – the Greens are the second-placed party in half of all Labour-held boroughs, and Labour are estimated to fail to top 40 per cent anywhere in the capital.
The model estimates the Greens will get the highest vote share for the first time ever in a London borough – leading in Hackney by 3 points – and within two points of Labour in three more (Islington, Lambeth, Lewisham).
Reform UK breaks through in the East, estimated to take the most votes in Havering and making Bexley a very close fight with the Conservatives.
The Conservatives are reduced to leading in just five outer London strongholds.
With a fifth of London voters still undecided (19 per cent), and several councils on a knife edge, much is still to play for.

Councils Leading on Vote Share
Implied Voting intention
Change in vote share since 2024 General Election
Labour
21
28
-15
Conservatives
5
17
-4
Liberal Democrats
3
14
+3
Greens
1
20
+10
Reform UK
1
15
+6
Independents & Others
1
6
+3

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Insurgent parties breaking through in London
More in Common’s London MRP suggests the political map of London is likely to be upended as the electoral fragmentation which has dominated much of the rest of the UK hits the capital. Labour’s vote share has fallen 15 points in London since the 2024 General Election, the Conservatives are down four points, and the combined vote of the two traditional parties has fallen by 19 points.
That ground has been seized almost entirely by insurgent parties: The Green Party’s support has increased by 10 points since 2024, while Reform UK are up 6 points.
Councils that Labour previously dominated such as Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Islington and Lambeth are now a two-way fight between Labour and the Greens. Meanwhile the Conservatives may struggle to regain traditional strongholds such as Westminster and Wandsworth and face an assault from Reform in Havering, Bexley and Bromley.
The Liberal Democrats are the only traditional party that look set to avoid the assault on the traditional mainstream, holding comfortable leads in their south-west strongholds and challenging Labour in Merton.